To Fold...or not to Fold...?
That is the dilemma that plaques every poker player. You have a good hand, not great by any means but good enough to win and someone bets over the top of you to force you into a decision. These are the times when experience, reading a player and poker math really come into play.
Here is an example of what I mean. The game is No Limit Texas Hold'em. 200/400 blinds. Five players and you are on the button (the dealer) and you have an average chipstack of about T4000.
You are dealt Qh-10h, FP calls, MP calls, You call, and SB calls...BB checks. Flops comes 10s-4s-10c. You trip up your 10's, but there is a flush draw on the board. SB checks, BB checks, FP bets 400, MP folds, you call 400, SB folds, and BB folds. Turn card is a 7s. MP bets 400 (minimum bet), and you raise it to 800. MP calls the 400 to make it 800. Now he has to know that you have trips if not a full house, but you figure he either has hit the flush, or has the Ace of spades that would give him a nut flush.
River card is a Js.
There are four spades on the board. You have trips. MP bets all-in with his last 750 chips. That means that there is over T5000 chips in the pot. I have about T2500 chips left at this point. All he needs is a spade, it could be the 2 or the A, doesn't matter. Any spade beats my tripped 10's. He could also have a pair of Jacks. But you typically don't slowplay Jacks in Middle Position (MP). But he might have been fishing for a flush with a drawing hand. He could have and 8 and a 9 for a straight. But you typically won't play that hand from middle position with the blinds this high, and he would have folded it at the flop, not bet. No, I figure I have to put him on at least AJ or AQ. AK would have come out with a raise pre-flop, so I don't think he has that, or he might have had pocket something like 7's or 8's.
Regardless of his hand, he is in the driver's seat. He pushed all-in making me make the decision but I am still in pretty good shape. If I lose the hand, I am still in but it will drastically affect my chipstack. If I win, I can coast and bully the other three players until it's over.
It's at this point that I look at the other players. Sometimes you can read where another player had a nut hand and folded it, or he had the nut card. This can be very helpful. But in this case, I am not reading anything. There are at least 9 chances that he has a spade.
Another thing to think about is that sometimes when you have a strong board, you can "bluff" someone out of a pot.
OK, so I figure that for only 750 chips more I can end this dilemma. It is less than a minimum raised bet, and If I lose the hand I can stay and play some more - so I call. The player flips over AJ suited in clubs riding a strong hand thinking he had a strong two pair on the board, but my 10's took him down.
To Fold...Or not to Fold?
Shakespeare would have loved the tragedy that is Poker!
